Royal Delta set for Sabin

Horseracing Betting Lines

02/22/2012 - Hallandale Beach, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Champion filly Royal Delta is ready to make her 2012 debut in Saturday's $100,000 Sabin Stakes at Gulfstream Park. The four-year-old will face four challengers in the 1 1/6-mile race.

Royal Delta, winner of last year's Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic, will once again have Jose Lezcano in the saddle and the pair will break from post two. Eclipse Award winner Bill Mott trains for Besilu Stables.

The filly is using the Sabin as a prep race for the $10 million Dubai World Cup on March 31 versus males.

"This is what it's all about," said Mott. "I'd like to see a good, solid effort in this race so we can look forward to Dubai. "She's doing really well. She's had a bit of a rest but her recent works have been good. She's showed she is willing to go long, willing to work, and she looks good doing it."

In 2011, Royal Delta won the Black-Eyed Susan and Alabama Stakes and was second to Havre de Grace in the Beldame. She's earned $1,694,600 in eight career starts with five wins.

"I think we're at a slight disadvantage at a mile-and-a-sixteenth," Mott noted. "It's a short wire turning for home and I don't think it plays into our filly's style. I don't think that's her best race, she's a bit of a stretch runner. I don't think the conditions are the most ideal but we're running in the race that's available."

Joining last year's champion three-year-old filly is Awesome Maria, winner of last year's Sabin. The five-year-old mare, trained by Todd Pletcher, has drawn to the outside of Royal Delta and will be ridden by her regular jockey John Velazquez.

"She's training exceptionally well," said Pletcher. "We've been a little frustrated because she's been ready to run for a little while. We tried to get her in an allowance race about a month ago which we didn't get to go. We've kind of landed in a difficult situation running off a long layoff in a tough race, but she's trained very well, she likes this track, so we're optimistic. She's a top class filly at a mile-and-a-sixteenth and so we'll hope for the best."

Owned by Paul Robsham, Awesome Maria is making her first start since June of last year when she won the Ogden Phipps Handicap at Belmont Park. Before being sidelined with an injury, she was perfect in all four 2011 starts, including the Sabin. The gray mare has earned $842,375 with seven wins in 12 career starts.

Here is the complete field in post position order: Ghostly Darkness, Rajiv Maragh; Royal Delta, Jose Lezcano; Awesome Maria, John Velazquez; Groupie Doll, Calvin Borel and Canadian Mistress, Elvis Trujillo.

Post-time for the Sabin is set for 3:50 p.m. (et).

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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